North Korea breaks record in 2022
It has fired more missiles than ever in a year. In fact, a quarter of the missiles North Korea has launched so far in 2022 have hit the skies. It was also the year that Kim Jong-un announced that North Korea had become a nuclear-weapons state and that his weapons were located here.
This has raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula to their highest level since 2017, when then-US President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury”.
So, what comes next?
Development of nuclear weapons
In 2022, North Korea made significant progress in terms of its weapons. It began the year by testing short-range missiles designed to target South Korea, followed by intermediate-range missiles that could target Japan.
By the end of the year it had successfully test-fired its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile to date – the Hwasong 17, which is theoretically capable of reaching anywhere on the US mainland.
Mr. Kim also lowered his threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. After announcing in September that North Korea had become an irreversible nuclear weapons state, he revealed that these weapons were no longer designed just to prevent war, but to win it proactively and aggressively. can be used on
At the end of the year, he gathered members of his ruling Workers’ Party to set out his goals for 2023.
Top on his list is “rapidly ramping up” the production of nuclear weapons. That should include the mass production of small, tactical nuclear weapons, which could be used to fight a war against South Korea, he said.
According to Ankit Panda, a nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this is the most serious development.
To develop a tactical nuclear weapon, North Korea must first develop a small nuclear bomb, which can be loaded onto a small missile. The world has yet to see evidence that Pyongyang has been able to do this. The intelligence community spent most of 2022 waiting for such a device to be tested, but the test never came — 2023 could be the year.
Other items on Mr. Kim’s New Year’s list are a spy satellite, which he claims will be launched into orbit this spring, and a robust solid-fueled ICBM, which he claims will be launched from its current model. America could be fired upon with little warning.
So we can assume that in 2023, with a clear sense of 2022, Pyongyang will continue to aggressively test, improve and expand its nuclear arsenal in violation of UN sanctions.
In fact, less than three hours into the new year, it had launched its first missile.
But, says Mr Panda, “the majority of the coming year may not be missile tests, but training exercises, as North Korea is now preparing to use its missiles in a possible conflict”.
Any talking?
With such an extensive list of targets, it is unlikely that North Korea’s leaders will choose to return to talks with the US this year. The last round of denuclearization talks ended in 2019, and since then Mr Kim has shown no sign of wanting to talk.
One line of thought is that he is waiting until he has the maximum leverage. Until he proves that North Korea is capable of destroying the US and South Korea, will he return to the table to negotiate on his own terms?
Instead, over the past year, North Korea has moved closer to China and Russia. It could be in the process of fundamentally changing its foreign policy, said Rachel Minyoung Lee, who worked as a North Korea analyst for the US government for 20 years and now works with the Open Nuclear Network.
If North Korea does not consider the United States essential to its security and survival, it will have a profound effect on the shape and form of future nuclear negotiations, he said.
Tensions on the peninsula
Meanwhile, a volatile situation is developing in the Korean Peninsula.
The North retaliates against every perceived “provocation” by South Korea – and sometimes the US.
It began in May 2022 with the arrival of a new South Korean president, who promised to get tough on North Korea. President Yoon Seok-yul leads with the belief that the best way to deter the North is to respond with military force.
It resumed large-scale joint military exercises with the US, which the North protested and launched more missiles. It began a tit-for-tat cycle of military action, with both sides flying warplanes near their borders and firing artillery at sea.
