ISLAMABAD: The risk of default on external debt repayments will materialize within the first six months (July to December), as Pakistan will have to pay $10.35 billion in foreign debt repayments by the end of December 2023.
To avert a balance of payments crisis, including servicing external debt and liabilities, Pakistan needs immediate injections of $4-6 billion if the IMF program is not revived by the end of June 2023.
Details available with JEE News show that the country will have to pay $3.79 billion in principal and interest payments in the first quarter (July-September) of the next financial year starting July 1, 2023.
Islamabad’s external debt service obligations will increase to $6.568 billion in the second quarter (October-December) of the fiscal year 2023-24.
In the second quarter (October to December) period, Pakistan needs to repay $1.219 billion in Eurobond repayments, including principal payments of $1 billion and interest payments of $219 million.
When contacted, a senior finance ministry official said that out of the more than $10.3 billion, $4 billion would be reserves, including $1 billion from China in July 2023 and the remaining $3 billion from Saudi Arabia. Second quarter (October to December) period. It is hoped that Islamabad will get $4 billion in reserves from these friendly countries.
However, there will be outstanding debt repayments of $6 billion that Islamabad will have to manage amid dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
Details of foreign debt repayments show that Pakistan will have to repay China under a guaranteed loan of $363 million, of which the principal amount is $280 million and the first quarter of the next financial year is $83 million. Millions of dollars in interest payments are also included.
Pakistan has to repay a total bilateral debt of $1.05 billion in the first quarter of the next financial year (July-September), of which Islamabad will pay $15 million to France, $24.67 million to Japan, $0.6 million to Korea, will pay $591 million to China, Kuwait $6.5 million and United Arab Emirates $2.29 million.
Pakistan will have to pay $398.08 million to Saudi Arabia in the first quarter of the next financial year starting July 1, 2023, in the form of foreign debt repayment.
Ironically, Pakistan will be obliged to pay $12 million in commitment charges as a penalty to international creditors.
Pakistan will pay $72 million as interest payments in the first quarter of the next fiscal year under the Eurobond. In the first quarter of the next financial year there will be a return of $84 million towards the repayment of commercial loans in the form of interest payments.
Within the first three months of the next fiscal year, Pakistan will return $1.096 billion to China in the form of safe deposits, including $1 billion in principal and $96 million as interest payments. This $1 billion safe deposit will mature in July 2023 with the expectation that China will roll over the safe deposit amount. On the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s deposit, Pakistan will have to pay $30 million as interest payments in the first quarter of the next fiscal year.
Pakistan will have to repay the IMF loan of $235 million in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, including $165.02 million as principal and $69.97 million as interest payments. For Naya Pakistan Certificates, the government will repay principal and interest of $93 million in the first three months of the next fiscal year.
Pakistan has to repay multilateral lenders $660.58 million in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, including $298 million to ADB, $9.23 million to AIIB, $9 million for unspent balance, WB A $227.67 million IDA loan, including $90.5 million IBR from WBD’. and $22.31 million from the IDB.
For the short-term IDB loan, Pakistan will repay $107.57 million in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
In the first quarter (July-September) of the next fiscal year, total outstanding foreign debt repayments stood at $3.79 billion, including principal payments of $2.99 billion and interest payments of $801.6 million.
In the second quarter (October-December) period of the financial year 2023-24, official data shows that Pakistan will have to pay $33.38 million to the Chinese commercial bank during the October-December period.
The total disbursement of bilateral loans to various friendly countries will be $1.009 billion.
In the second quarter of the next fiscal year, $33 million in trade loans will be repaid. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) will repay the deposit in the amount of $3.03 billion, which includes $3 billion of deposits as principal and $30 million as interest payments. KSA is expected to roll over $3 billion in deposits.
228 million dollars will be returned to the IMF in the second quarter of the next financial year. Naya Pakistan certificates will be redeemed at $80 million.
In the second quarter of the next fiscal year, total foreign debt repayments to multilateral lenders will reach $730.29 million. The IDB’s short-term debt repayment will be $64.2 million.
In the second quarter of the next financial year, total external debt repayments will reach $6.568 billion, which poses a serious threat to the economy on external debt repayments, while foreign exchange reserves are currently around $4 billion.
