Brazil have not won the World Cup since 2002 but there is a strong possibility that Qatar 2022 could be their year.
Using StatsPerform’s artificial intelligence FIFA World Cup 2022 prediction model, the South Americans have emerged as favorites to lift the trophy for a record sixth time. But how well are England and Wales going to do?
To get a better picture of who will win the 2022 World Cup, the prediction model estimates the probability of each match’s outcome – win, draw or loss – using the betting market’s odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings.
Odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance. The model then considers the strength of the opponent and the difficulty of their path to the finals, taking into account the formation of groups and seedings in the knockout stages, using probabilities of match outcomes.
Brazil emerged as the most likely to win. The five-time winners, who are the overall favorites to win, have a 16 percent chance of lifting the trophy according to the model, and as the overall favorites for the tournament, the most likely to reach the final. There is also team (25 %).
Just behind five-time winners Brazil, it is Argentina who have the second-highest odds of winning the World Cup this year. Lionel Scaloni’s side, who are favorites in Group C, have a 13 percent chance of lifting the trophy this year.
The top five contenders for the 2022 World Cup are France (12%), Spain (9%) and England (9%).
Despite being third overall favorites to win the tournament, it is France who have the highest probability of qualifying for the tournament’s knockout stages (91%), ahead of overall favorites Brazil ( 89%).
Croatia, who beat the finalists in 2018, are unlikely to repeat that performance. Zlatko Dalic’s side have just a 4% chance of returning to the final this year, with 11 other teams in the tournament more likely to do so.
