Fighting in Ukraine is at a standstill because neither Ukraine nor Russia can make significant progress, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency has said, while Kyiv waits for more advanced weapons from Western allies.
“The situation is at a standstill,” Kyrylo Budanov told JEE News. “It doesn’t move.”
After Ukrainian troops recaptured the southern city of Kherson in November, most of the heavy fighting has taken place around the Bakhmut region of eastern Donetsk. Elsewhere, Russian forces appear on the defensive while winter has slowed Ukrainian ground operations along a 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) frontline.
Mr Budanov said Russia was “completely exhausted now” suffering significant losses, and he believed the Kremlin had decided to announce another recruitment drive. But, he added, Ukrainian forces still lack the resources to advance in several areas.
He said that we cannot beat them from every direction. “We look forward to the delivery of new weapons and the arrival of more advanced weapons.”
Earlier this month, after a series of Russian military setbacks, Ukrainian officials warned of the possibility of another ground invasion by Moscow’s forces from Belarus as early as 2023. He said that this push could include a second attempt to capture the capital city of Kyiv. , and includes tens of thousands of reservists trained in Russia.
However, Mr Budanov rejected Russia’s activities in Belarus, including the movement of thousands of troops, as it seeks to divert Ukraine from the battlegrounds of the south and east to the north.
Recently, he said, a train loaded with Russian troops stopped at a point near the Belarus-Ukraine border and returned several hours later, with all aboard.
“They did it openly during the day, so everyone could see it, even if [we] didn’t want to,” he said, adding that he saw no real, imminent threat from troops in Belarus. “So far, I don’t see any signs of preparations for an attack from Belarus on Kyiv or the northern regions.”
The interview in Mr Budanov’s dimly lit office in Kyiv comes days after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Belarusian capital Minsk for the first time in more than three years. His visit is fueling speculation that he may try to persuade President Alexander Lukashenko, a longtime ally, to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine.
Belarus has been used by Russian forces as a launch pad for attacks, but Mr Budanov believes Belarusian society will not support further involvement in the war and analysts have criticized the level of readiness of its 48,000-strong army. The question has been raised. He said that that is why President Lukashenko is taking all measures to prevent any disaster for his country.
Since retaking Kherson, Ukrainian forces have engaged in brutal fighting with Russian troops around Bakhmut, in trench warfare that has been compared to World War I. For Russia, capturing the city would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and open the way for an advance on other Ukrainian strongholds in the east, including Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
