Finland’s conservative leader Petri Orpo has won a three-way election race, defeating Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s centre-left.
“We’ve got the biggest mandate,” the National Coalition Party leader said after a dramatic night in which the result slowly slipped away from Ms Marin’s Social Democrats.
Mr. Orpo won 20.8 percent of the vote, ahead of the right-wing populist Finns Party and the center-left.
Populists won a record 20.1%.
It is a bitter defeat for Ms Marin, who increased her party’s seats and won 19.9% of the vote.
She continues to enjoy high poll ratings and is widely credited for leading Finland to NATO entry and navigating her country through the Covid-19 pandemic.
Shortly after the conservative leader claimed victory, the centre-left leader conceded the election.
“Congratulations to the winner of the election, congratulations to the National Coalition Party, congratulations to the Finns Party. Democracy has spoken,” he told supporters.
For weeks the three parties were almost evenly matched in the polls and as the results came in they were very close to being called. Then a projection by public broadcaster YLE showed Petri Orpo’s National Alliance winning the most seats in parliament.
“I think the people of Finland want change. They want change and now I will start negotiations, open negotiations with all parties,” he said.
Public broadcaster YLE’s political correspondent Matti Kovisto said there was an atmosphere of excitement in the camp. “When they saw the projection, it was pretty clear they were going to win.”
Fins Party leader Rikka Pora congratulated her centre-right rival and was herself happy with the best result in her party’s history.
“We are still challenging to be number one, but seven more seats is a great result.”
Finland highlighted its success by winning more territory than any other party in mainland Finland. Rikapura won more votes than any other candidate and commentators took to social media like TikTok to highlight her party’s appeal to young voters.
Meanwhile, three of the other parties in the outgoing coalition – the Center Party, the Left Alliance and the Greens – all suffered big losses.
Now 37, Sana Marin became the youngest world leader after entering the political scene in 2019. He headed a coalition of five parties, led by women.
Despite his successful response to neighboring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the election was largely fought over Finland’s economy and public debt as all mainstream parties supported NATO membership.
Many see Finn as a polarizing figure. She came under fire last year when a video surfaced of her singing, dancing and drinking at a party. Supporters said the controversy was sexist and women in Finland and around the world shared videos of themselves dancing in solidarity.
YLE’s Matti Koivisto says that Petteri Orpo, by contrast, has none of Sana Marin’s “rock star” qualities.
“He’s a career politician. He’s been in the game since the 1990s and he’s quite stable and calm. He’s been criticized that maybe he’s too slow and quiet, but that would have worked quite well in Finland as well. Is.”
The conservatives will have their first chance to form a government and, if successful, Mr Orpo, 53, will become the next prime minister.
Under an Orpo-led government, Europe can expect a pro-European conservative from the liberal center of his party, with an emphasis on economic policy.
Less enthusiastic than Sana Marin and much more moderate, Vesa Varis, a professor of contemporary history at the University of Turku, says: “A kind of dream son-in-law.”
Under Finland’s system of proportional representation, he would have to win more than 100 seats in the 200-seat parliament to run the country, and that won’t be straightforward.
Mr. Orpo really has two choices, either to form a right-wing coalition with Rikka Pura’s nationalist Finns party or to strike a deal with San Marino’s Social Democrats.
“The Finns are a very difficult partner because they are very inexperienced and they have MPs who are not satisfied with almost anything,” says Professor Wars.
“The most natural thing would be to cooperate with the Social Democrats. But [Sana Marin] belonged to the left wing of her party and it is obvious that she does not like the conservatives.”
Jenny Krimäki, a politics researcher at the University of Helsinki, also points out that Ms Marin is reluctant to say what her ambitions are.
The Social Democrats have mixed feelings, she says, because while they increased their seats in parliament, they failed to become the largest party and renew their prime ministership.
“But the Finnish political culture is known for its flexibility. It is known for its ability to negotiate and compromise.”
