The former US ambassador to Russia has told JEE News what it’s like trying to negotiate with the Kremlin and why President Vladimir Putin won’t give up easily on Ukraine.
John Sullivan was America’s man in Moscow during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
He said the former US ambassador was the one who had spoken with Russian officials about trying to stop the war, but “there was no engagement”.
“They asked for security guarantees for Russia but wouldn’t talk constructively about security for Ukraine. They never followed through on what they said… It was a mob.”
When I ask whether the United States should work harder to continue these talks to end the conflict, he tells me that President Vladimir Putin “wasn’t interested in negotiations before the war. He still is.” Not interested in negotiations”.
Instead, the Biden administration has focused on gaining international support for arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia, which itself is sending billions of dollars worth of arms to the country.
In a speech on Tuesday, Mr. Putin repeated his view that the West had started the war, that it was trying to use Ukraine to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Moscow, and that Russia, not Ukraine, , is fighting for its existence.
Despite the failures of Moscow’s self-styled special military operation, Mr Sullivan says the Kremlin’s initially announced goals remain the same – to “de-Nazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine. They interpret it as “removal of the government in Kiev and subjugation of the Ukrainian people”.
It is part of the vision outlined by President Putin to reunite the Russian people who were separated after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“They cannot have a democratically elected government, especially under President [Volodymyr] Zelensky in Kiev,” Mr. Sullivan says. “He will never be satisfied as long as that government exists because he sees it as a threat to Russia and to the great Russian state that he is trying to build.”
So, what will Mr. Putin have to do to stop the war?
“He has to believe he can’t win,” says Mr. Sullivan. “He’ll double down until he’s convinced there’s no way he’s going to win. I’m not sure how important the battlefield failures are for him to get to that point. Must be, but he’s nowhere near that today.”
Mr Sullivan says the Russian leader has a long time horizon, and “is not going to surrender easily to what he wants to achieve”.
Neither do Ukrainians, Mr. Sullivan believes, citing the isolation of the Slavic nation of 44 million people as one of the strategic failures of Mr. Putin’s war.
“The people of Ukraine don’t forgive and forget,” he says. “Even if President Zelenksy wanted to end the war, make territorial concessions, basically surrender, the Ukrainian people would not allow it.”
With such a military, political, and ideological deadlock, America must be prepared for a protracted war.
President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kiev on the anniversary of the attack to underline America’s resolve, but Mr Sullivan does not expect the conflict to end this year.
“Beyond that I don’t know,” he says. “But [Mr Putin] doesn’t want an off-ramp. The objectives of this special military operation will be achieved. He says it all the time.”
