China is once again conducting military exercises around Taiwan – but some experts say Beijing has dialed them down because the island will hold a presidential election in nine months, and it is in China’s interest to See the victory of the dissident Kuomintang Party (KMT).
No missiles were fired near the island, the drills lasted just three days and the American politician who met President Tsai Ing-wen – House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – was not approved.
Beijing’s response was harsher than when former Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei last August.
Chen Shen-yin, a professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, says the exercises have become part of China’s “standard operating procedure” since Ms. Pelosi’s trip. “They need to be made aware of their position, but their reactions cannot be overstated.”
Timing is key.
The Chinese Communist Party defeated the KMT in a civil war that ended in 1949, and later forced it to flee to Taiwan. But in recent decades, the former rivals have found common ground in the 1992 Consensus, a vaguely worded understanding that says there is only “one China” that includes Taiwan.
If Beijing continues its hardline rhetoric, it risks making the election the best campaign for the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Professor Yin says.
The KMT won big in last year’s local elections, but analysts say the China factor weighs heavily in the presidential election.
China has adopted a carrot-and-stick strategy, says Fang Yu-chen, a professor at Taiwan’s Soochow University. On the one hand, China promises exchanges – including economic and cultural – if Taiwan agrees to the “one China” principle. Along with this, he is also continuing his military training.
“Beijing wants to tell the Taiwanese people that if they vote for the DPP, there will be war, but if they vote for the KMT, there will be peace,” he adds.
Striking is an uneasy balance. However, China also faces internal pressure to crack down on Taiwan, especially given that China is fueling nationalism among its citizens.
If China’s military drills are intended to deter US and Taiwanese politicians from rapprochement, it has achieved some success – Taiwan appears to have taken steps to ease tensions surrounding the Tsai-McCarthy meeting. are
Last July, Mr. McCarthy said he would like to lead a congressional delegation if he became House speaker. The Financial Times reported, citing sources, that the Tsai administration was able to persuade him to meet in the US because of Taiwan’s security concerns.
The US also tried to play down the visit, pointing out that it was Mrs Tsai’s seventh transit since taking office. Both the US and Taiwan call it a stopover or transit rather than a “visit”.
“The US and Taiwan have developed an understanding that they should take a low profile,” says Professor Chen.
He said it was still a win for Taiwan, as Mr. McCarthy was the highest-ranking American official to meet a Taiwanese president on American soil since 1979, when the United States severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan. were
The Taiwan issue is one of the biggest flashpoints in US-China relations. China views the democratically autonomous island as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to seize it.
As the US shows more support for Taiwan, China has accused it of undermining its long-standing one-China policy.
Under the policy, the US recognizes formal ties with China rather than the island of Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province that will one day be unified with the mainland.
But this is separate from the One China principle, under which China insists that Taiwan is an indispensable part of the one China that will one day be unified.
US policy does not endorse Beijing’s position and, in fact, as part of policy, Washington maintains “strong unofficial” ties with Taiwan, including continuing to sell arms to the island to help it defend itself. can do
